Fire risk from surrounding landscapes to Jasper and Banff townsites as predicted from two different computer modelling approaches. Because many computer modelling and graphic programs ignore or regionally-average wind direction, these should be used with caution. In fact, given that >90% of high fire danger days near the towns of Banff and Jasper are driven by southwest winds the integrating models shown above are very misleading. Compare against a local windrose before application!
Fire behavior and risk is driven by a “BurnBox” sided by 4 groups of variables: terrain, fuels, weather, and human use/governance. Interpretting the interacting influences of these groups of variables is a complex problem. Over the last few decades this has increasingly been done with analyses aided by computer models and most recently artificial intelligence.
Banff has an incredible empirical (e.g. real-world) set of environmental, social and management observations related to wildland fire. In this section contributors can describe both the benefits and costs of modern models in comparison to the long-term traditional research, planning and management approaches.